About HWMP
‘HWMP’ is the sound of climate reality hitting us over our collective heads.
One billion people live in areas that, by the end of this century, will experience heat and humidity not survivable for humans.
HWMP is a plan for saving the most lives with available technologies and resources.
Why
In extreme heat, humans seek shade and produce sweat to cool off. But when extreme heat combines with high humidity, sweat cannot evaporate fast enough to cool the body.
The combined effect of heat and humidity is measured by ‘wet bulb’ temperature: a wet thermometer placed in the shade. A wet bulb temperature above 35°C (95°F) is not survivable even for healthy adults.
One billion people live in areas that, by the end of the century, will experience wet bulb temperatures above 35°C. The largest share of people these people live in the low-income countries.
Already, instances of wet bulb temperatures above 35°C have doubled since 1978, occurring mostly in the Persian Gulf. This area and parts of Southeast Asia – especially Bangladesh and India – are at highest risk of non-survivable heat waves.
Governments and international organizations have not mobilized to develop a master plan for what solutions (cooling centers, etc.) to place in what locations, and by what time.
What
HWMP will determine what heat wave solutions to place where, by when, to save the most lives with available resources and technologies.
HWMP will evaluate potential solutions – from marine cloud brightening to reduce heat wave risk, to off-grid cooling centers, to air conditioning for existing buildings – in terms of their costs, reliability, capacity, equitable access, and other factors.
HWMP will estimate optimal roll-out of solutions taking into account resource constraints and economic trade-offs (spending sooner to avoid even a small chance of deadly heat waves, versus spending later to prioritize near-term climate mitigation and public health).
HWMP will consider layered solutions, such as marine cloud brightening to reduce heat wave risk in addition to local cooling centers in case a heat wave happens.
HWMP will consider a range of climate mitigation scenarios and refugee policy scenarios to compare “business as usual” to different ways leaders could address climate change and climate refugees.
Ultimately, HWMP will show how to save the most lives with what is available, and gaps in resources and technologies that could save even more.
How
HWMP will bring together climatologists, policy analysts, heat stress physiologists, engineers and economists to develop a Heat Wave Master Plan for global regions at risk of non-survivable heat waves.
Our climatology team will identify areas at risk of deadly heat waves and how this risk grows under different climate change scenarios.
Our policy analysis team will develop climate refugee policy scenarios and estimate how each scenario impacts the populations in need of heat wave solutions.
Our heat stress physiology team will estimate the health risks for those left behind to endure deadly heat waves. Those most vulnerable to heat – pregnant women, children, and the elderly – are the most likely to be left behind.
Our engineering team will systematically evaluate technologies with potential to address deadly heat waves in terms of their costs, reliability, capacity, equitable access, and other factors. Emerging technologies, such as marine cloud brightening, will be continuously re-evaluated.
Our economics team will estimate where and when to deploy solutions to save the most lives, taking into account resource constraints and economic trade-offs (spending sooner to avoid even a small chance of deadly heat waves, versus spending later to prioritize near-term climate mitigation and public health). It will also compare solutions in terms of how they affect health disparities and inequity.
Our stakeholders are governments, NGOs, and international donors seeking to save lives at historic scales. Stakeholders will have input into policy scenarios, resource constraints, trade-offs, and feasibility of the Heat Wave Master Plan. HWMP will be a ‘living document’ and an overarching template for local implementation planning.
Contact
HWMP is in its formative stage. We value feedback and partnership. Reach out to us at contact at HWMP dot org.